Mexico - Cat 4 Lidia is Mexico’s 3rd-strongest landfalling Pacific hurricane on record
Two Pacific storms carried out spectacular rounds of rapid intensification on the same day.
After a phenomenal burst of rapid intensification on Tuesday, Hurricane Lidia made landfall at 7:50 p.m. EDT Tuesday, October 10, as a dangerous Category 4 storm with top sustained winds of 140 mph and a central pressure of 942 mb.
This makes Lidia tied as the third-strongest landfalling Pacific hurricane on record for Mexico (see the Wikipedia table below, which includes both Mexico and Hawaii landfalls).
Lidia hit the coast about 35 miles south-southwest of Puerto Vallarta. This location is about 60 miles northwest of the landfall location of Mexico’s strongest Pacific hurricane on record, Hurricane Patricia of 2015, which had 150 mph winds and a central pressure of 932 mb at landfall. Hurricane Madeline of 1976, with winds of 145 mph, was the second-strongest hurricane to strike Mexico.
Puerto Vallarta was on the weaker left-hand side of Lidia’s circulation so did not receive the full brunt of the storm. The more powerful right side of the hurricane affected less populated areas. Nevertheless, Lidia may end up being a very impactful storm for Mexico, judging by the consequences of Hurricane Patricia of 2015, which killed 14 people and did about $1 billion in damage. So far, Lidia is being blamed for one death and scattered damage, though the hardest-hit areas have yet to be fully heard from.
Hurricane Lidia rapidly intensified by 65 mph in the 24 hours up to landfall and by 70 mph in the 24 hours ending at 5 p.m. EDT Tuesday. These are very rare rates of rapid intensification, occurring less than 1% of the time in eastern Pacific hurricanes (Figure 1).
Read: Climate change is causing more rapid intensification of Atlantic hurricanes
Lidia’s remnants to feed into heavy Southeast U.S. and Gulf Coast rains
Lidia dissipated over the high terrain of Mexico on Wednesday morning, but the hurricane’s remnants, along with those of Tropical Storm Max (which hit the southwest coast of Mexico on Monday), and the remains of the disturbance called Invest 93L from the southern Gulf of Mexico will feed into a frontal zone over the northern Gulf of Mexico today and Thursday. The moisture from this system will track to the east, bringing heavy rains of two to four inches to the northern Gulf Coast and Southeast U.S. through Friday. Unfortunately, these rains will mostly miss the areas in extreme to exceptional drought that lie along the western Gulf Coast — especially from southeast Texas across southern Louisiana and Mississippi, where drought conditions are the most intense since 2011.
Typhoon Bolaven becomes the planet’s eighth Cat 5 of 2023, after battering the Northern Mariana Islands
Typhoon Bolaven passed through the channel between Rota and Tinian islands in the U.S. Northern Mariana Islands early Tuesday morning U.S. EDT as a Category 1 storm with 75-85 mph winds. Fortunately, no major damage was reported in the islands from Bolaven.
After clearing the islands, Bolaven put on a very impressive display of rapid intensification, topping out as a 180-mph Cat 5 storm at 8 a.m. EDT Wednesday, October 11. The Japan Meteorological Agency put Bolaven’s central pressure at 900 mb, with sustained 10-minute average winds of 130 mph. The Joint Typhoon Warning Center predicts that Bolaven will gradually weaken as it recurves to the north and northeast this week, and no land areas lie in Bolaven’s path.
Bolaven is Earth’s eighth Cat 5 storm of 2023, using ratings from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center and National Hurricane Center. The 1990-2022 average globally for an entire calendar year is 5.3 Cat 5s, so 2023 is well above average, tied for sixth-highest since 1990. The record is 12 Cat 5s in a year, set in 1997. Bolaven is the planet’s second-strongest storm of 2023; its 180-mph winds are just behind the 185-mph winds of Super Typhoon Mawar at its peak.
The other Cat 5s of 2023 include at least one in every major ocean basin prone to tropical cyclones: the Atlantic (Hurricane Lee), Northeast Pacific (Hurricane Jova), Northwest Pacific (Super Typhoon Mawar), North Indian (Cyclone Mocha), South Indian (Cyclone Freddy and Cyclone Ilsa), and Southwest Pacific (Cyclone Kevin).
Bolaven rapidly intensified by a remarkable 85 mph in the 24 hours ending at 8 a.m. EDT Wednesday. (Editor’s note: This was erroneously reported earlier as 95 mph. Thanks go to Jasper Deng for this correction.) This is not far below the world record for 24-hour intensification of 120 mph, held by Hurricane Patricia of 2015. Both Bolaven and Lidia carried out their parallel rounds of rapid intensification atop unusually warm waters for this time of year, a consequence of widespread record-warm ocean temperatures. All four of the ocean basins that spawn tropical cyclones in the Northern Hemisphere have seen above-average activity for 2023 to date as measured by accumulated cyclone energy, whereas it’s much more common for one or two basins to be active while one or two are less busy than average.
