NY - New York’s Metro-North Is an Economic Mudslide Waiting to Happen
Between damage from falling debris, storm surges and rising seas, it’s time to climate proof the commuter lines that tie the lower Hudson Valley and its workforce to the city.
The village of Briarcliff Manor is quintessential Westchester County, New York: Leafy, wealthy and named like a sequel to Downton Abbey. It recently suffered a mudslide, a ghastly intrusion, to be sure, but also a portent of climate change snapping the links that hold together the bustling neighborhoods and sleepy suburbs that make New York City work.
On Oct. 21, a Saturday, I saw crowds stranded at Tarrytown’s Metro-North Railroad station, a few miles south of where a retaining wall behind a house in Briarcliff had given way, spilling tons of rocks and earth down onto the tracks. The Hudson Line, carrying 10 million riders annually, is one of three commuter lines east of the river that tie the lower Hudson Valley, and its workforce, to the city. The line runs along the eastern bank of the river for most of its 74 miles between Grand Central Terminal and Poughkeepsie.
In fine weather, gazing across the Hudson at the looming Palisades can take the edge off even a Monday morning commute (I use the line to get to the office). But just as northern California’s most Instagrammable spots now tend to be its most flammable, the Hudson Line’s chief attraction is also its potential downfall in a warming world.
The Metropolitan Transportation Authority is investigating the mudslide, but it is safe to say the area’s seven wet weekends in a rowplayed a role. Climate change increases the potential for deluges to wash debris down from the steep slope on the landward side of the Hudson Line1. It also threatens encroachment from the river itself. Storm surges can inundate tracks, washing out gravel beds and leaving behind hazardous flotsam. In 2012, Hurricane Sandy flooded more than half the line and even deposited a boat across the tracks near Ossining.
The rising sea level presents a growing, persistent threat. About half the line lies on the floodplain already. An in-depth analysis of vulnerabilities published in 2011 noted especially low elevations, of 6.6 feet or less, on the line near Spuyten Duyvil in the Bronx and Croton-on-Hudson in Westchester County. Meanwhile, the New York City Panel on Climate Change projects a rise in sea level of between 8 inches and 2.5 feet by the 2050s and between just over a foot and almost five feet by the 2080s.2Absent taking action, the MTA expects regular tidal flooding on low-lying segments of the line by the 2050s.
