USA - The headwinds and tailwinds affecting offshore wind in the Northeast, explained
There’s a lot happening in the offshore wind world right now, especially in the Northeast. And depending on what articles you read, the industry is booming or teetering on financial failure.
The reality is probably somewhere in between. There are headwinds and tailwinds, producing what one person in the industry described as “whiplash in headlines.”
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Making sense of it all can be tough. But the stakes are high: Climate change is happening and electricity demand in the region is projected to rise precipitously over the next decade as people buy electric vehicles and heat pumps.
Several New England states, plus New York and New Jersey, are counting on offshore wind to help meet their decarbonization and electrification goals — not to mention banking on the industry to create clean energy jobs and revitalize once-thriving port cities like New Bedford and New London.
A year and a half ago, things looked rosy for offshore wind. States signed 20-year contracts for cheap electricity. Companies announced or started to build manufacturing facilities to help create a domestic supply chain for the industry. Even the Cape Wind controversy of the 2010s seemed more and more like a hiccup in the story of the American offshore wind revolution.
But then came a global inflation crisis, new supply chain disruptions and a growing movement of people calling for a pause on offshore wind development as dead humpback whales washed up on beaches.
To get a full picture of where the industry stands in late 2023, here’s what you need to know:
New turbines are going up
Despite the challenges facing the industry, the news is positive when it comes to Vineyard Wind 1, the country’s first commercial-scale offshore wind farm. The 62-turbine project is under construction in the water about 15 miles from Martha’s Vineyard, and the first electrons are expected to flow into the grid by December. By the time it’s fully up and running next year, the 800 megawatt project should produce enough electricity to power 400,000 homes in Massachusetts.
Several miles west, closer to Long Island, offshore construction for the 12-turbine, 132 megawatt South Fork Wind farm is also underway. Its developers anticipate delivering some power to their New York customers by the end of the year.
There are seven offshore wind turbines operating in the U.S. — five near Block Island and two off the Virginia coast. Together, they can generate 42 megawatts of power. With the addition of Vineyard Wind 1 and South Fork Wind, the country will have 81 turbines capable of producing nearly a gigawatt — or 1,000 megawatts — of power.
That's a far cry from the Biden administration’s goal of 30 gigawatts by 2030, but it’s a step. And industry experts and clean energy advocates say the progress on these two first projects should not be understated; getting to this point was never a sure thing.
“We should not lose sight of the fact that Vineyard Wind was not inevitable,” said Amy Boyd Rabin, vice president of policy at the Environmental League of Massachusetts. “It is a very big deal and should be celebrated as such.”
Economic woes and canceled contracts
The future of subsequent projects in the Northeast pipeline, however, is much more uncertain. These projects face a lot of economic issues — inflation, rising interest rates and supply chain disruptions or backlogs. Long permitting timelines and a failure by industry leaders and state officials to build in buffers for economic turbulence, also played a role.
“This is a real moment of crisis for the industry,” said Amber Hewitt, a senior director at the National Wildlife Federation. “I believe the industry will endure, but the question is when and at what scale.”
